You don’t have to take my word for it. Let’s compare the average of pre-election polls — computed by FiveThirtyEight and ...

ABC News is projecting that Trump is expected to win Indiana’s 11 electoral votes. That is not a surprise. In previous ...

N.C. is a key swing state in the race for president. Here's what final rounds of polls are predicting on Election Day.

President Joe Biden pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s latest average of polls with the president leading in the last five national polls measured. Biden posted ...

Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election. On Tuesday, Nov. 5 — Election Day — millions more will join them.

Just before Election Day, national polls indicate a tight presidential race. How accurate are the polls, and when will we ...

National polls indicate a tight presidential race on Election Day. How accurate are the polls, and when will we know who won?

According to pollster Nate Silver 's forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris now has a 50 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to former President Donald Trump 's 49.6 percent. It also notes ...

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

After 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Election Day, Americans will get their first look at exit polls, which could offer early intel ...

How can two polls say two different things? And can you even trust polls, anyway? Here at 538, we cover polls year-round, so we'd like to share with you some tips we've learned over the years on ...

Polls are almost always at least a bit off. Some of that is due to imperfect assumptions about what the likely voter ...