The broader market would have to cooperate, and the AI narrative would have to return for, NVDA stock to break above $220 this year. Compared to most other AI stocks right now, NVDA is surprisingly the cheapest of the bunch. It trades at 41 times earnings, while historically, it has traded around 52 times earnings at the median.

Nvidia's clients aren't the only ones that need to take all their eggs out of one basket. The chipmaker is also alarmingly reliant on the generative AI opportunity. Data center sales (which include high-end AI chips) represented a whopping 88% ($115.2 billion) of 2024 sales. And the company will need to diversify over the coming years.