That's lower than the statistical bias of the polls in 2016 and 2020, which underestimated Trump by 3.2 and 4.1 points, respectively. But it's higher than the bias in the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 ...

Polls taken before Election Day did pretty well. Pollsters got close to the mark in races for president and senate, which is ...

Polls are almost always at least a bit off. Some of that is due to imperfect assumptions about what the likely voter ...

The map was created before Election Day 2024 as a prediction of how women might vote.

And, while most pollsters had predicted a narrowing margin between Harris and Trump in the popular vote, almost all showed ...

Early Wednesday morning, Trump secured enough Electoral College votes to set himself up for a second presidency by flipping the key swing states of Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Plus, ...

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

The Iowa pollster, renowned for her accuracy, has promised to review the data after her pre-election poll was far out of line with the results.

There was little movement at the top or among East Texas teams in the weekly Texas high school football poll released on ...

Donald Trump outperformed expectations for his third straight presidential election, which will surely raise more questions about pollsters’ ability to gauge where elections stand. Trump pulled ...

Essentially, he told me, FiveThirtyEight reflects one person’s approach to turning data into a probability. Markets are ...