Data from TSCL’s 2024 Senior Survey shows 62% of older Americans worry their retirement income won’t even cover essentials such as groceries and medical bills. Will 2026's COLA increase help?

The non-partisan advocacy group The Senior Citizens League predicts the 2026 COLA will be 2.1%, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI-W, the index used to calculate the annual increase. December’s CPI-W came in at 2.8%. Getty Images

Key Points In 2025, Social Security benefits got a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment. Initial estimates are calling for a similar COLA in 2026. At this point, it’s premature to nail down a COLA, as it will depend on economic conditions in the next 12

An early prediction for next year’s Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment shows retirees could be in for a shock. The latest prediction reflects cooling inflation that could lead to the lowest COLA since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.